28. AP25795233 Modeling the dependence of the spring wheat yield on the heat and moisture conditions supplied in subzones of Northern Kazakhstan (Aidarbekova Toizhan Zhumagalievna)

Information on scientific and (or) scientific-technical projects of grant financing by Ministry of Science and Higher EducationRepublic of Kazakhstan

1) Grant financing Grant financing of scientific and (or) scientific-technical projects for 2024-2026 (implementation period 36 months)

Project summary

Project title

AP25795233 Modeling the dependence of the spring wheat yield on the heat and moisture conditions supplied in subzones of Northern Kazakhstan

Project manager

Aidarbekova Toizhan Zhumagalievna

Implementation period

2025-2027

Amount of funding

29986561

Topicality

Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the sustainability of agriculture in Kazakhstan. In Northern Kazakhstan, over the past decades, there has been an increase in air temperature, more frequent droughts, and irregular precipitation. These processes lead to significant fluctuations in crop yields and increase climate-related risks.

Spring wheat occupies up to 80% of the region’s arable land, yet its productivity remains unstable, which necessitates a scientific understanding of the relationship between yield and indicators of heat and moisture supply. Under conditions of global warming, it is important to develop a model that allows for yield forecasting based on climatic factors and helps adapt agriculture to changing conditions.

Modeling the dependence of spring wheat yield on thermal and moisture regimes will make it possible to identify the most resilient subzones and optimize the distribution of crop areas. In this regard, the development of scientific foundations for adapting the agricultural sector of Northern Kazakhstan to climate change and improving the efficiency of grain production is highly relevant.

Objective

The aim of the study is to model the dependence of spring wheat yield on heat and humidity conditions in the subzones of North Kazakhstan, taking into account the forecast of climate change in the context of global warming.

Project outcomes

Extensive information will be obtained on the climatic conditions of the subzones of Northern Kazakhstan, including changes in temperature regimes, the amount of precipitation, and the duration of the growing season over the past 50 years.

A correlation analysis will be conducted, and a model of spring soft wheat yield will be developed depending on the heat and moisture supply conditions across the subzones of Northern Kazakhstan.

A forecast of possible changes in spring wheat yield under global warming and changing climatic conditions will be created, along with practical recommendations for agricultural producers on optimizing the geographical distribution of spring wheat sowing areas to improve production stability.

Two (2) scientific articles will be published in journals ranked within the first three quartiles by impact factor in the Web of Science database or having a percentile of at least 50 in the CiteScore ranking of the Scopus database.

Recommendations will be developed for optimizing the geographical distribution of spring wheat sowing areas across the subzones of Northern Kazakhstan to enhance the stability of its production.

The research results will be presented at international scientific and practical conferences.

The findings of the study can be used by:

- specialists of meteorological stations of Kazhydromet to describe the agrometeorological conditions of the current years and to forecast spring wheat yields;

- in the educational process for undergraduate students of the “Geography,” “Biology,” and “Agronomy” programs.

The research results will enrich the sciences of Ecology and Agrometeorology with additional information and provide the science of Agro-industrial Complex Economics with specific recommendations for the specialization of the subzones of Northern Kazakhstan.

Optimization of spring wheat sowing areas within the subzones of Northern Kazakhstan will ensure high and stable yields of spring wheat and increase the economic efficiency of the crop production sector as a whole.